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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model