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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
61.9%
CAR
38.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.014 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.225 EPA/dropback
  • BUF on 6 more days rest than CAR
  • CAR offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 26
–
CAR 21
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

BUF

DaQuan Jones DT Out Calf
Taylor Rapp S Out Knee
Josh Palmer WR Out Knee
Matt Milano LB Questionable Pectoral
Terrel Bernard LB Questionable Ankle
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Oblique
Maxwell Hairston CB Questionable Knee

CAR

Bryce Young QB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 40
–
CAR 9

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 FG BUF (7:18) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 13:07 FG BUF (13:07) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 09:03 FG CAR (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. BUF 6 – CAR 3
  • Q2 07:35 TD BUF (7:35) 4-J.Cook left guard for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – CAR 3
  • Q2 01:52 TD BUF (1:52) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 18 – CAR 3
  • Q3 12:28 TD BUF (12:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 25 – CAR 3
  • Q3 05:04 TD BUF (5:04) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 32 – CAR 3
  • Q3 01:21 TD BUF (1:21) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 39 – CAR 3
  • Q4 10:37 TD CAR (10:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 40 – CAR 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:57) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-K.Shakir ran ob at BUF 24 for 4 yards (0-J.Sanders).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 84%

    (7:18) 15-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (13:07) 15-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 78%

    (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:51) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 26 for 6 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%

    (13:13) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 17-X.Legette to BUF 24 for 11 yards (47-C.Benford).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:06) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 19 for 6 yards (37-J.Hancock).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:26) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to CAR 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 23 for 7 yards (39-C.Lewis).