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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model