Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 3 – Buffalo Bills 12

(5:51) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 0-K.Coleman to BUF 26 for 6 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 48-T.Incoom).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.92 EP
57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model