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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 12 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model