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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 3 – Buffalo Bills 19

What Actually Happened

(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model