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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 40 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to CAR 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 19 for 6 yards (37-J.Hancock).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model