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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 9 – Buffalo Bills 40

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to BUF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model