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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to CHI 33 for 3 yards (33-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.69 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model