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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CHI
42.8%
BAL
57.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Tyler Huntley (BAL): -0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Cooper Rush)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than CHI
  • CHI offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CHI

Cole Kmet TE Out Back
Braxton Jones T Out Knee
Kyler Gordon CB Out Groin
Roschon Johnson RB Out Back
Tyrique Stevenson CB Out Shoulder
Cairo Santos K Questionable Thigh
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Knee
Austin Booker DE Questionable Knee

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 16
–
BAL 30

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:55 FG CHI (6:55) 8-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – BAL 0
  • Q1 00:07 FG CHI (:07) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 08:19 TD BAL (8:19) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – BAL 6
  • Q2 01:11 FG BAL (1:11) 33-T.Loop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CHI 6 – BAL 10
  • Q3 10:08 FG BAL (10:08) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CHI 6 – BAL 13
  • Q3 03:38 FG BAL (3:38) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. CHI 6 – BAL 16
  • Q4 12:26 TD CHI (12:26) 4-D.Swift right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – BAL 16
  • Q4 08:19 TD BAL (8:19) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 88-C.Kolar for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – BAL 22
  • Q4 05:10 FG CHI (5:10) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 16 – BAL 23
  • Q4 02:16 TD BAL (2:16) 22-D.Henry right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – BAL 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (6:55) 8-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:44) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 17 for 8 yards (39-K.Jackson).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (:07) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 70%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to CHI 33 for 3 yards (33-J.Jones).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (1:11) 33-T.Loop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 61%

    (:03) 8-C.Santos 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (10:08) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (3:38) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (9:55) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to CHI 4, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%

    (5:10) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.