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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 33-T.Loop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.13 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model