4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP