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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 65

Chicago Bears 6 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-38-K.Martin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP