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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 33-T.Loop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model