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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 30

Chicago Bears 13 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model