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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 14

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 8-C.Santos 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model