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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 1

Chicago Bears 16 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +4.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.77 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model