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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 17 for 8 yards (39-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.32 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP