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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 22

Chicago Bears 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model