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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to DEN 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model