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Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

DAL
51.0%
DEN
49.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DAL

Donovan Wilson S Out Elbow
Trevon Diggs CB Out Concussion
DeMarvion Overshown LB Out Knee
Shavon Revel Jr. CB Out Knee
Juanyeh Thomas S Questionable Illness
Tyler Guyton T Questionable Glute
Cooper Beebe C Questionable Ankle
Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable Ankle
Ajani Cornelius T Questionable Knee

DEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 24
–
DEN 44

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 FG DAL (10:36) 17-B.Aubrey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 08:21 TD DEN (8:21) 12-R.Harvey left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – DEN 6
  • Q1 03:10 TD DEN (3:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 11-T.Franklin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 07:32 TD DAL (7:32) 33-J.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – DEN 14
  • Q2 03:51 TD DEN (3:51) (Shotgun) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 12-R.Harvey. 12-R.Harvey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. DAL 10 – DEN 20
  • Q2 00:44 TD DEN (:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 13-P.Bryant for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-97-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. DAL 10 – DEN 26
  • Q3 08:14 TD DAL (8:14) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – DEN 27
  • Q3 06:06 FG DEN (6:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. DAL 17 – DEN 30
  • Q4 12:54 TD DEN (12:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – DEN 36
  • Q4 07:18 TD DEN (7:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – DEN 43
  • Q4 04:50 TD DAL (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Milton pass deep right to 1-J.Tolbert for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – DEN 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (10:36) 17-B.Aubrey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 18 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:57) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 38 for 13 yards (35-M.Liufau; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (14:56) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to DEN 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to DAL 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (2:25) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 28 for 13 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%

    (10:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens ran ob at DEN 10 for 17 yards [99-Z.Allen]. DEN-99-Z.Allen was injured during the play.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (6:06) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:30) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to DAL 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:35) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 21-R.Moss.