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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 88

Denver Broncos 14 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to DAL 41, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.70 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 88, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model