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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 32 for 11 yards (53-C.Goode; 87-H.Rucci).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model