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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
35.6%
ATL
64.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Julian Hill TE Out Ankle
Jason Marshall Jr. CB Out Hamstring

ATL

Storm Norton T Out Foot
Divine Deablo LB Out Forearm
Billy Bowman Jr. S Out Hamstring
Jalon Walker LB Out Groin
Jordan Fuller S Questionable Knee
Drake London WR Questionable Hip
Tyler Allgeier RB Questionable Hip
Zach Harrison DT Questionable Knee
Michael Penix Jr. QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34
–
ATL 10

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:38 TD MIA (2:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – ATL 0
  • Q2 13:03 FG ATL (13:03) 39-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. MIA 7 – ATL 3
  • Q2 06:18 FG MIA (6:18) 47-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:18 TD MIA (:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 6-M.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – ATL 3
  • Q3 04:26 TD MIA (4:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – ATL 3
  • Q4 13:34 TD MIA (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-O.Gordon for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – ATL 3
  • Q4 08:41 FG MIA (8:41) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 34 – ATL 3
  • Q4 05:09 TD ATL (5:09) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 34 – ATL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 32 for 11 yards (53-C.Goode; 87-H.Rucci).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIA 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (4:07) 31-O.Gordon right guard to ATL 7 for 1 yard (21-M.Hughes; 31-X.Watts). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 67%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-T.Allgeier to MIA 34 for 4 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 87%

    (13:03) 39-J.Romo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to ATL 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Agnew. PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at ATL 8.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 49, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to ATL 40 for 9 yards (35-N.Brooks).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (6:18) 47-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:50) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 6-M.Washington to MIA 18 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:31) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to ATL 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 43 for 8 yards (27-E.Bonner; 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on ATL-84-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 4-K.Hodge.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 37 for 2 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (8:41) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-K.Hodge to ATL 49 for 8 yards (26-R.Douglas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 0-Z.Wilson pass short right to 5-J.Wright to ATL 27 for no gain (21-M.Hughes).