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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 47-R.Patterson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model