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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP