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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 31 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model