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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Miami Dolphins 34

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 4-K.Hodge to ATL 49 for 8 yards (26-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model