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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model