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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Thursday 2025-10-23 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

MIN
33.9%
LAC
66.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (MIN): -0.078 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIN

C.J. Ham FB Out Hand
Andrew Van Ginkel LB Out Neck
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Knee
Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee
Zavier Scott RB Questionable Wrist
J.J. McCarthy QB Questionable Ankle

LAC

Hassan Haskins RB Out Hamstring
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Knee
Troy Dye LB Questionable Thumb
Elijah Molden S Questionable Thumb
Jamaree Salyer G Questionable Knee
Austin Deculus T Questionable Ankle
Joe Alt T Questionable Ankle
Jamaree Caldwell DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
LAC 37

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:05 TD LAC (4:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 86-O.Gadsden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-J.Greenard]. PENALTY on LAC-86-O.Gadsden, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 13:13 TD LAC (13:13) 30-K.Vidal left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – LAC 13
  • Q2 09:00 FG MIN (9:00) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:50 TD LAC (:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – LAC 20
  • Q3 10:05 FG LAC (10:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIN 3 – LAC 24
  • Q3 04:40 TD MIN (4:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – LAC 24
  • Q4 12:48 TD LAC (12:48) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 9-T.Harris for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – LAC 30
  • Q4 07:04 FG LAC (7:04) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIN 10 – LAC 34
  • Q4 02:00 FG LAC (2:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIN 10 – LAC 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:47) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:24) 17-R.Wright punts 50 yards to LAC 41, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 73%

    (9:00) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (6:10) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 30%

    (4:12) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 12-D.Davis to LAC 22 for 10 yards (0-I.Pace). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%

    (:03) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

    (10:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:10) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (7:04) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson [20-C.Hart].

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.