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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(:03) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.16 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model