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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 17-R.Wright punts 42 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP