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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP