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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model