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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model