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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 91

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NYG 34, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.22 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 91, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model