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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYG
30.1%
PHI
69.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.180 vs Jaxson Dart (NYG) -0.007 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Paulson Adebo CB Out Knee
Chauncey Golston DE Out Neck
Jevon Holland S Doubtful Knee
Graham Gano K Questionable Groin
Brian Burns LB Questionable Hip
DJ Davidson DT Questionable Ankle

PHI

Brandon Graham DE Out Not injury related - other
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Concussion
A.J. Brown WR Out Hamstring
Azeez Ojulari LB Out Hamstring
Cam Jurgens C Out Knee
Jakorian Bennett CB Out Pectoral
Darius Cooper WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
PHI 38

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:53 TD PHI (14:53) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 03:01 TD NYG (3:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 11:43 TD PHI (11:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 26-S.Barkley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 02:57 FG NYG (2:57) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – PHI 14
  • Q2 00:25 TD PHI (:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – PHI 20
  • Q3 07:08 FG PHI (7:08) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 10 – PHI 24
  • Q3 00:23 FG NYG (:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – PHI 24
  • Q4 11:23 TD PHI (11:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – PHI 30
  • Q4 06:07 TD PHI (6:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 2-J.Dotson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – PHI 37
  • Q4 02:49 TD NYG (2:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – PHI 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%

    (6:15) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 43%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to NYG 41 for 5 yards (24-D.Belton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (12:57) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYG 9 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). New York Giants challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (8:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to PHI 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:19) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to NYG 34, Center-57-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (2:57) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:22) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PHI 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 24 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (7:08) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (2:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.