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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model