Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 65

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(13:22) 12-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PHI 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 24 for 17 yards (47-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model