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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model