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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 12-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 87-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model