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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 16

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model