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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model