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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 20 for 14 yards (88-J.Tonges).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model