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San Francisco 49ers

5-3 HC Kyle Shanahan
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HOU Home

Houston Texans

3-4 HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 ET NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SF
41.8%
HOU
58.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 22 15–29
–
HOU 24 17–31
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Jake Brendel C Out Hamstring
Bryce Huff DE Out Hamstring
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Hamstring
Deommodore Lenoir CB Questionable Quadricep
Spencer Burford T Questionable Knee

HOU

Christian Kirk WR Out Hamstring
Nico Collins WR Out Concussion
Alijah Huzzie CB Out Knee
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee
Jaylin Smith CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 15
–
HOU 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:24 FG HOU (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG HOU (15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 07:36 TD HOU (7:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 81-J.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – HOU 12
  • Q2 01:02 FG HOU (1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:29 TD SF (:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – HOU 16
  • Q3 07:35 TD HOU (7:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-17-B.Berrios has returned to the game. SF 7 – HOU 22
  • Q3 00:33 TD SF (:33) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – HOU 23
  • Q4 09:44 FG HOU (9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 15 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (8:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right guard to SF 23 for 1 yard (48-T.Bethune).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 13 for -3 yards (33-S.Neal).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 20 for 14 yards (88-J.Tonges).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%

    (13:45) 7-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 93 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to 50, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to HOU 44 for 9 yards (5-J.Pitre).

    See the full breakdown →