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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 18

Houston Texans 13 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model