Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 15 – Houston Texans 26

(8:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.77 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model