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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 93

Houston Texans 26 – San Francisco 49ers 15

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to 50, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.06 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 93, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 51, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model