Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 3

(3:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 13 for -3 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model