Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

(5:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model